Good morning, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, My name is Yi-Chun Chen. It’s my honor to have the presentation for you.

Even though Myanmar conducted the first election in 1990, the democratic sign of political changes appeared in May 2008 with the implementation of Myanmar’s constitutional referendum. Furthermore, the presidential election held on November 7, 2010, its consequence certainly had a significant impact on Myanmar’s political development.

It is very interested to observe how the effects of such democratic changes affect the presidential election in 2015 and also Myanmar’s upcoming reforms and democratization.

Myanmar undergoing transformation in politics, economy, and ethnic reconciliation has attracted national as well as international attentions. Regarding to Myanmar’s constitutional referendum of May 2008, it at that time was deeply criticized undemocratically because the new constitution still permitted the military junta to retain a great extent of political power. Nevertheless the political actions driven by this democratic route was a glimpse of hope for the closed off, conservative government of Myanmar in the past to turn to referendum and the multiparty system.

This is a good starting and turning point for us to exam Myanmar’s democratization due to the results of the referendum. Since then, whether a new political system of Myanmar has developed its initial prototype of democratization with the changing relation between the state and society.

The third possibility is that if Aung San Suu Kyi runs for the presidential election in 2015 and is elected, this relationship could also move from Relationship A to Relationship B to Relationship D, an outcome similar to that in the first possibility.

In other words, Aung San Suu Kyi can directly implement constitutional amendments, thoroughly eradicating the old system and directly implementing democracy so that Myanmar can enter a phase of democratic governance. Consequently, a people-centered relationship between the government and the civil society can be established to attain true democracy.

Three possibilities exist. First, regardless of whether a president is elected from the ruling or the opposition party, the relationship can be progressively developed like Relationship A to Relationship B to Relationship C to Relationship

D because of the current economic strategies, problems generated from the democratization process, and international pressure. This development is a gradual shift from democratic closure to democratic consolidation, which must occur slowly to reach the ultimate goal of democratic governance.

The first stage refers to the strong leadership of the junta from 1990 to 2000, during which they ignored the opinions of opposing parties and international forces.Thus, this stage falls in the third quadrant, meaning that the democratization of Myanmar was in a closed state and that the society was in a state of low economic development.

The second stage refers to the beginning of the new century prior to the elections from 2000 to 2010. This was the first decade of the new century, and globalization was spreading rapidly. However, during this period, Myanmar was still subjected to economic sanctions and embargoes from international forces and the people were dissatisfied regarding the junta’s inadequate political and economic performance. During this stage, rather than being assertive and creating conflicts, the junta had maintained a low-profile for compromising and planning a democratic roadmap for Myanmar. Based on these observations, this stage falls in the inter, which is between the third and fourth quad.

In the latter part of this stage, the overall developmental process in Myanmar was gradually changing. This was when the Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar was ratified by the referendum in 2008, and elections were decided to be held in 2010.

The third stage refers to the developmental trend after the elections in 2010 and before the parliamentary election in 2012. In this stage, the junta had transferred power to the civilian government in an attempt to attain the autocratic image of the military government, and the president, Thein Sein, endeavored to establish a friendly relationship with Western countries.Therefore, this stage falls into the early phase of the fourth quadrant. Because the democratization in Myanmar opened up new opportunities, other nations gradually reduced or temporarily suspended the economic sanctions against Myanmar.

The fourth stage refers to the period from the by-election held on April 1, 2012 to the present. Regarding the democratization of Myanmar, these developments have been positive. After Aung San Suu Kyi was elected as a member of the parliament, the democratic image of the country improved. President Thein Sein and Aung San Suu Kyi frequently visited foreign countries, enhancing the image of Myanmar worldwide. Consequently, this has attracted substantial amounts of foreign investment and induced the lifting of international embargoes and the attainment of additional aid, thereby altering the society and economy of Myanmar that have been closed for many years.

If Aung San Suu Kvi wins the election, the party alternation will be happened.Due to the party in power will be more opening. The Vnion Solidarity and Development Party will be paying much attention to the will of the people.

Can Myanmar’s democratization generate a new model? Politically, whether the ruling party provides an open electoral space, whether the military regime is willing to accept extensive reforms, whether the opposition party remains restrained, whether Aung San Suu Kyi is allowed to participate in the next presidential election, the parliamentary reforms, whether the civil society will thrive, the interactions and coalition of Myanmar’s domestic political elites, and the democratization strategies adopted are all essential indicators for determining the success of democratic transformation. These indicators are worthy of extended follow-up observations.