登录 | 注册
当前位置: 首页 > 察哈尔评论
双语|成锡忠:塔利班与政府平起平坐谈判,阿富汗和平进程仍充满变数
发布时间:2020年10月13日  来源:  作者:成锡忠  阅读:1221

9月12日,阿富汗政府和塔利班在卡塔尔首都多哈开始举行直接和平谈判。这是2001年美国入侵阿富汗以来,阿富汗政府和塔利班举行的首次直接谈判。


BEIJING, Sep. 20 (Gwadar Pro) - On September 12, the Afghan government and the Taliban started their direct peace talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar. This is the first direct negotiation between the Afghan government and the Taliban since the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.


塔利班的地位 

The status of the Afghan Taliban


2001年,美国发动反恐战争,采取军事手段打击阿富汗,当时阿富汗塔利班被作为“基地”组织的庇护者,其政权被推翻,并受到美国的全面军事进攻。


In 2001, the United States launched a global war on terror and occupied Afghanistan through military operations. At that time, the Afghan Taliban was regarded as the patron of Al Qaeda, and its regime was overthrown by the United States, and since then the Taliban has been comprehensively and continuously attacked by the United States.


19年过去了,阿富汗塔利班没有被消灭,曾经的美国军事打击的主要对象,如今取得与美国政府平起平坐的谈判地位,而且在多方做工作后才同意与美国政府的代表举行谈判。


In the past 19 years of fighting, the Afghan Taliban has not only continued to exist, but also grown stronger and stronger, and now it enjoys equal negotiating status with the US government. In the end, the United States had to seek negotiations with it. Only after the relevant parties exerted influence, the Taliban agreed to hold talks with representatives of the US government.


这次与阿富汗政府的代表举行谈判,塔利班也不是心甘情愿,因为塔利班认为阿富汗现政府是美国扶植起来的傀儡政权,不具备代表阿富汗人民的资格。


This time, the Taliban was not willing to hold talks with representatives of the Afghan government because the Taliban believes that the current Afghan government is a puppet regime fostered by the United States and is not qualified to represent the Afghan people.


从被美国军事打击的主要目标,到被美国追求的谈判对象,再到与阿富汗政府平起平坐的谈判者,塔利班不但已经成为影响阿富汗国内安全形势的主要因素,而且其地位逐步合法化,日益被国际社会所重视。


From the main target of the US military attack to the negotiation object pursued by the United States, and then to the negotiation partner equal to the Afghan government, the Taliban has not only become the main factor affecting the domestic security situation in Afghanistan but also gradually got its status legalized, which is increasingly valued by the international community.


巴基斯坦的关键作用 

The key role of Pakistan



作为阿富汗的邻国,巴基斯坦不但是美国军事占领阿富汗以及由此引起的恐怖主义的最大受害者,而且在随后的阿富汗和平和解进程中一直处于相当困难的境地。


As a neighbor of Afghanistan, Pakistan is not only the biggest victim of the US military occupation of Afghanistan and the terrorism caused by the US military operations, but also has been in a very difficult situation in the subsequent peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan.


本世纪初,美国逼迫巴基斯坦切断与阿富汗塔利班的联系,支持美国对阿富汗的军事打击。巴基斯坦为打击恐怖主义做出巨大牺牲。2001年以来,在反恐战争中,巴基斯坦有7万多人失去宝贵的生命,经济损失高达2500亿美元。


At the beginning of this century, the United States forced Pakistan to cut off its ties with the Afghan Taliban and support the US military attack on Afghanistan. Pakistan has made great sacrifices to fight terrorism. Since 2001, in the war on terror, more than 70,000 Pakistani people have lost their precious lives and the economic loss has reached 250 billion US dollars.


美国军队在阿富汗战场上逐步沦为“老鼠过街,人人喊打”的对象,不得不寻求与阿富汗塔利班谈判。起初,阿富汗塔利班根本不愿与美国谈。在此情况下,美国就不断找巴基斯坦的麻烦,给巴基斯坦施压。


On the Afghan battlefield, the US troops gradually became the targets as “rats crossing the street chased by all", so the United States had no choice but to seek peace talks with the Taliban. At first, the Afghan Taliban did not want to talk with the United States at all. Under such circumstances, the United States kept putting pressure on Pakistan by creating troubles.


为谋求地区和平,巴基斯坦克服各种困难,与国际社会有关各方一道,做阿富汗塔利班的工作,充分发挥阿富汗和平和解进程支持者和斡旋者的作用,为实现美塔谈判并于今年2月29日签署旨在结束阿富汗战争的和平协议发挥了关键作用。


In order to seek regional peace, Pakistan has overcome various difficulties, worked with the relevant parties of the international community, and successfully facilitated the Afghan Taliban to accept the offer of peace talks. Therefore, Pakistan has given full play to the role of supporter and mediator of the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan and played a key role in realizing the US-Taliban negotiations and signing the peace agreement aimed at ending the war in Afghanistan on February 29 this year.


同样,此次为促成阿富汗政府与塔利班开启和平谈判,巴基斯坦与国际社会有关各方一道,做了大量工作。巴基斯坦总理伊姆兰·汗9月13日重申,巴基斯坦将继续全力支持阿富汗人民致力于和平与发展的不懈努力,“阿人所有、阿人主导”的和谈对实现阿富汗和地区和平是必不可少的,希望阿富汗领导人抓住历史性机遇,共同努力达成包容、广泛、全面的政治解决方案。


Similarly, Pakistan, together with all parties concerned in the international community, has done a lot of work to facilitate the opening of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan reiterated on September 13 that Pakistan will continue to fully support the Afghan people's unremitting efforts for peace and development. The "Afghan-owned and Afghan-led" peace talks are essential to the realization of peace in Afghanistan and the region. He hopes that the Afghan leaders will seize the historic opportunity and work together to reach an inclusive, extensive, and comprehensive political solution.


阿富汗和平进程充满变数

The Afghan peace process is full of uncertainty 


虽然阿人内部和谈已经启动,阿富汗的和平前景仍面临许多困难。


Although the intra-Afghan talks have been launched, the peace and reconciliation process in the country still faces many difficulties.


首先,美国不会从阿富汗全部撤军。美国阿富汗问题特别代表哈利勒扎德近日表示,美国将在1-2个月内缩减在阿富汗的驻军至4500人。只要美军继续赖在阿富汗,阿富汗塔利班就不会完全停止抵抗运动,要真正实现阿富汗的和平,美军必须全部、彻底、干净地离开阿富汗。


First, the United States will not withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan. US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad said recently that the United States will reduce its troops in Afghanistan to 4,500 within one to two months. As long as the US troops continue to stay in Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban will not completely stop the resistance movement. To truly achieve peace in Afghanistan, the US troops must leave Afghanistan completely.


其次,美国不会放弃对阿富汗政权的操控。塔利班认为,现在的阿富汗政府是美国的傀儡政权。其实,离开美国的支持,阿富汗现政权就会马上倒台。在此情况下,阿人内部谈判,很可能会边打边谈,阿富汗的安全形势不会有根本改善。要真正实现阿富汗和平,美国必须全部、彻底、干净地放弃对阿富汗政府的操控。


Second, the United States will not give up its control of the Afghan regime. The Taliban believes that the current Afghan government is a puppet regime of the United States. In fact, without the support of the United States, the current regime in Afghanistan will collapse immediately. Under such circumstances, the intra-Afghan talks will likely go ahead along with fighting, and the security situation in Afghanistan will not be fundamentally improved. To truly achieve peace in Afghanistan, the United States must thoroughly give up its control over the Afghan government.


第三,随着美国减少在阿富汗的军事存在,某些地区势力正试图深度干预阿富汗事务,从而会给阿富汗和平和解进程增添复杂因素。


Third, as the United States reduces its military presence in Afghanistan, some regional force is trying to deeply intervene in Afghan affairs, which will add complex factors to the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan.


责任编辑/唐春云 徐坤阳


作者:成锡忠,察哈尔学会高级研究员、西南政法大学特聘教授、北京中安华盾咨询服务有限公司常务顾问

来源: 中安华盾订阅号, 2020-9-19

用户名:
密码:
换一张
评论 (0
加入收藏
打印