Such
speculations are logical, as the parade is part of a series of events to mark
the 70th anniversary of victory in World War II and the Chinese People's War of
Resistance Against Japanese Aggression.
Abe's
appearance at a parade that aims to commemorate the victory over his country
will seem too much to take, if not sheer humiliation, especially when Japan is
constantly urged to properly deal with historical issues with the countries it
invaded.
"Abe's
appearance on that occasion would mean China-Japan reconciliation. But there is
no such atmosphere for that, including the current China-Japan relations and
Abe's own personality. In other words, there are currently no conditions for
such a reconciliation," said Wang Chong, director of the Phoenix International
Think Tank and a research fellow at the Charhar Institute.
He
believed that Abe's is unlikely to attend China's Victory Day parade as Western
leaders have also declined invitations, because Japan's foreign policies
"closely follow" Washington's decisions.
"If
Obama goes, Abe is highly likely to go, because he cannot tolerate the U.S.
ditching Japan while strengthening ties with China. But if Obama isn’t going,
Merkel isn’t going, and other important Western leaders aren’t going, Abe won’t
go either," said Wang at the 2015 Charhar Roundtable: Peace in East Asia –
Review and Outlook held on Aug. 20 in Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province.
But
he warned of the excessive association between the military parade and the
hatred toward Japan, agreeing with Japanese media's advocation that ordinary
Japanese people born after the war should not have to shoulder burden of their
belligerent ancestors. "Young Japanese people should not have to carry
their fathers' sins, nor should historical issues affect the development of
bilateral cultural and people-to-people exchanges. But the Japanese government
should assume the right attitude towards history and it does owe us, the
neighboring countries it bullied in the war, an apology," said Wang.
He
reiterated that the Sept. 3 parade is not to "hate Japan." And his
opinions were entirely agreed by Yoshikazu Kato, a columnist for the New York
Times and former visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins University in the United
States. Kato did not think that "one summit meeting between the two
leaders would alter the situation, nor will it aggravate if they don't
meet."
"At
a time when diplomacy only accounts for a small part of China-Japan relations,
compared with people-to-people exchanges and trade, the two peoples still need
more time to get to know each other," said Kato, who also said that
"Abe is unlikely to go."
Kato
quoted some Japanese media reports claiming that Abe might arrive in China on
the afternoon of Sept. 3, just skipping the military parade. He insisted that
Abe's China visit – if he goes but skips the parade – on such a "sensitive
occasion" would be a "contributing factor for reconciliation"
and would open up a new era for China-Japan relations.
"It
will show that at least we are willing to, at whatever cost, communicate with
the Chinese leaders and the Chinese people. Such a willingness has actually
existed for a while; it was beyond imagination in the past," said Kato.
Both
experts agreed that the United States is also a major player in the peace and
stability in East Asia. While Washington keeps bolstering the Asia-Pacific
rebalance, it keeps a vague stance as to how much it wants to get involved in
Asia-Pacific affairs. But for Japan, cooperating with the United States is an
inevitable choice.