My topic is about the strategy of the government in the ongoing democratic transition. There are seven components in my presentation, first background situation; then research puzzle, hypothesis & variables, causal mechanism & research design, undermining democratic opposition groups, enhancing legitimacy, and I will conclude my presentation with Preliminary Findings and Limitations.

We already knew that Myanmar has engaged in the reform process in 2011 after a long history of repressive regime and progress in reform process was seen as very much optimistic at the beginning of 2010 and until the end of 2012, which include the liberalization of the economy, including the privatization of several SOE, and after 2010 onwards the accommodation of the political will of the opposition group leader Aung San Suu Ky to enter mainstream politics, several politic prisoner who were jailed under the previous government, media censorship, suspension of the missile project which is heavily invested by China. The government process was challenged by democratic factor, public dissatisfaction grows, why the government showed little interest in constitutional amendment which deter Aung San Suu Kyi from becoming a president in 2015 election and so forth. After the second year, what is visible to us is that the Thein Sein government paid extraordinary attention toward the peace negotiation issue with the ethnic groups.

Among all these ongoing issues, why Thein Sein government has paid extraordinary devotion to the ethnic peace forces? So these problems tie with the transitional strategy .So my research question is among all these ongoing issue, why the ethnic issue become so critical to the Myanmar quasi-civilian government now? The possible hypothesis is that the government needs to retain and extend its political power to steer the country’s political transition. And ethnic issue can pave the way for influential politics. To explain it, I will treat the power preference of Thein Sein government which is the extension of power status quo as a dependent variable, the use of ethnic issue as a transitional strategy to advance its preference as a independent variable. In order to explain my DV, the status quo, first, ethnic peace negotiation help undermine democratic opponents; second ethnic peace process help enhance legitimacy. In order to explain my casual mechanism, I’ll use a qualitative method with a case study which is ethnic peace process and I’ll depend on three types of sources: in-depth and focused elite interviews, reports and personal notes and published information.

To explain my first casual mechanism, that is ethnic issues help undermine democratic opposition groups. My investigation is based on‘democratic-ethnic’alliance. In other word, I’ll look at the evidence to support the opposition ethnic relations. So three type of investigations: (1) elite level engagement, which means the opposition group leader (2) the opposition group involvement in the process and (3) resource for the peace process. Our first study, if there is any elite meetings or visit between the ethnic group and the opposition party leader Aung San Suu Kyi , I mean if there is any substantive follow-up activities after the meetings of visit. So from 2012 to 2014, there are two visit of the KNU leaders to the opposition group leaders Aung San Suu Kyi . And they have discussed the future cooperation between the ethnic groups and for the peace building process. But there is no follow-up activity until now, not that I know of. Likewise, another largest group, KIO, there is no meeting, no public until now between the KIO leaders and Aung San Suu Kyi . But they have communication lately, in a press statement, KIO agreed under the call of the possible negotiation between two party for the 2015 election, but there is no substantive follow ups until now. Likewise, there is a minimal communication of other ethnic leaders with the democratic force regardless of any calls for the second panel conferences involving all the ethnic groups in democracy process. So the democratic-ethnic relation is an impasse. Therefore I like to argue that elite level engagement at democratic force and ethnic arm group nearly portray symbolic figures without having substantive follow ups. So we can say once-politically powerful‘democratic-ethnic alliance’has started to fade away under the Thein Sein government.

For the second analysis, I’ll look at the process. According to the draft of the nation wide peace contract from the three parties—the government, the military, and nation wide cease fire coordination team (NCCT), the role of the democratic group was pay tribute. These drafts require the president of the representative of the legal party, only at the final stage, of the negotiation process, only at the political dialogue. So it means the political party has no role for participation, no role for negotiation in the meetings. Likewise, an informal involvement, there are only a few times political bodies are being invited for the peace meetings. So political clout of democratic opposition groups has been declined in both formally and informally during the peace process after 2012. And part one, resource perspective, I mean the influence of the democratic opposition group in obtaining resources for the government initiative peace process. It’s known that the opposition leader enjoys her political supremacy in the international donors position over the financial and technical aid for most of the humanitarian project under the previous region before 2011. But in the present day, as part of the international donors group find concept, the Myanmar was funded in 2012 and they have established funding mechanisms for peace process without parting any democratic politic panel unlike in the past. So in resource provision perspective, political influence of democratic opposition group over ethnic peace process has been visibly reduced while there are much progress in accommodating demands of the ethnic groups.

So this slide explain my second mechanism. I’ll explain the ethnic peace negotiations help enhance legitimacy on state-societies and inter-state relations, which means the support of the local public and support of the international communities on government peace process. Firstly look at public. Actually it has already explain the live of the villager has been much better and they welcome the peace process. It’s true that I cannot agree any more. More than 74% of the public say that they satisfy with the government performance on handling peace process according to the IRI report 2014.Again 39% said they have confident on the USDP party against 33% on NLD over ending the ethnic conflicts. So I argue ethnic peace process helps enhance local public’s supports on the government’s performance. The second point for the mechanism is for the international communities. I look at the government legitimacy from the international community. In other words, support from the international community over the ethnics civil war spillover effects to neighboring countries is one of the hotline for the reform projects.

So after 2012, it seemed that international community reengaged Myanmar by participating peace process. For instance, China, UN and Japan have participated in peace meeting as an international observer, and EU provided support for the government peace. Ethnic peace process helps reengaging the government with international communities. Here we can tell you I didn’t say that it really enhances legitimacy, but it can help enhance the legitimacy of the government.

The role of democratic opposition groups has weakened after 2012, in terms of (1) elite level engagement (2) Process and (3) Resources. Aiming to end civil wars with ceasefire arrangement and reengagement with the international communities through peace process help enhance legitimacy locally and regionally. These will support my main argument: ethnic platform would allow the Thein Sein government to undermine democratic opposition groups and to enhance its legitimacy in arranging its transitional strategy in order to extend its political power as the status quo.

My researches are not without limitations, although the peace negotiation are taking place there are the ongoing clashes between the military and some armed groups like KIO, prolonged peace negotiation process, moreover, there are maybe the possible political influence of Aung San Suu Kyi over international aid to the government. However, these limitations shouldn’t cause constraints from my key findings because I tried to conduct my research within these limitations.