二十国集团领导人第十一次峰会(G20)将于2016年9月4日至5日在中国杭州召开。这是中国首次以东道国身份举办并设置G20会议议题,峰会将成为中国今年最大的主场外交活动。中国将“构建创新、活力、联动、包容的世界经济”定为这次杭州G20峰会的主题,并设置了“创新增长方式”、“更高效全球经济金融治理”、“强劲的国际贸易和投资”及“包容和联动式发展”等四大议题。主题和议题体现了中国改善全球经济治理的愿景和实现世界经济重回正常轨道的愿望。
为改善全球经济治理,中国从“十八大”以来提出了各种建设性倡议,如丝路基金、金砖国家新开发银行、亚洲基础设施投资银行、“一带一路”建设方案等。尤其,习近平主席在“一带一路”座谈会上强调,“以‘一带一路’建设为契机,开展跨国互联互动,提高贸易和投资合作水平,推动国际产能和装备制造合作,本质上是通过提高有效共给来催生新的需求,实现世界经济再平衡。”
那么,中国在G20峰会中能否向世界提供新发展动力呢?
G20杭州峰会的中国角色:三大意义和三大关注点
2008年美国次贷危机引发全球金融危机以来,经济下降是全球共同面临的大主题。在全球面临各种经济危机、各种军事冲突不断地发生的恶劣环境中,中国能够成为全球第二经济大国实在是不简单。对于成为G2的中国而言,这次中国首次召开G20杭州峰会是一种新挑战、新机遇。
笔者认为,此次G20峰会对中国具有如下意义:首先,改善全球经济治理体制,成为全球治理的改革者。中国试图改善现有的全球经济治理,将改革世界经济体制作为长期性任务。其次,推广中国模式与议题全球化。其主要目的在于扩展中国公共外交在全球的影响力。中国将改革开放、经济发展的经验与其他发展中国家分享,进而增强了中国公共外交在全球各地的影响力。最后,中国重新构建全球定位。中国以代表发展中国家为自身的全球定位,致力于保护发展中国家在现有全球治理体系中的权利,促使发达国家履行对发展中国家的各种援助和经济合作。
中国在此次G20杭州峰会应发挥东道主的主角作用。因此笔者认为,如下三点值得关注:首先,面对发达国家、新型工业国以及发展中国家的不同全球治理需求,中国能否表现出开放性国际协调能力;其次,在其协调过程中,中国能否发挥与其全球大国之一身份相符的G2领导力;最后,中国能否给发展中国家和新型工业国提供帮助其持续发展的全球性公共产品。
关于全球治理制度化和G20机构机制的若干建议
全球金融危机以来,世界经济复苏的基础十分脆弱,全球经济增长在相当时间内可能都处于低迷状态。为实现全球经济的复苏和振兴,中国应在G20杭州峰会发挥东道主角色,主动推动全球治理的体制改革,创新新全球治理战略,构建G20机构机制,实现G20全球治理制度化,促使新全球经济治理在发达国家与发展中国家之间实现发展机遇的平衡和机制内权利的平衡。
关于全球治理制度化与G20机构机制方面,笔者提出两个方面的建议:一方面,中国在G20峰会上可提出如下八大全球治理制度化,包括全球经贸治理制度化、全球金融治理制度化、全球绿色治理制度化(包括环境和气候治理)、全球能源治理制度化、全球传统安全治理制度化、全球非传统治理制度化(反恐怖主义、传染病等)、全球热点议题治理制度化(如英国退欧对全球经济影响力等),以及全球合作项目治理制度化(包括中国“一带一路”建设方案、韩国欧亚倡议等各国国家战略的对接)。
另一方面,为了打造这种八大全球治理制度化,可考虑通过构建三大机构机制来区分角色分工:首先,“G20峰会”负责全球经济治理的顶层设计;其次,新成立“G20一加一部长会议”,让各国经贸和外交部长参与,负责全球经济发展中各国的协调工作;再次,设立“G20秘书处”,负责各国不同议题的调整和执行工作。
G20杭州峰会应进行“习朴会”,启动“第二次中韩大交易”
冷战结束后,中韩两国民间交往自1983年北京申办亚运会开始日趋加强,由于涉及中国台湾和朝鲜的利益,中韩两国建交谈判事宜在严格保密的情况下完成,是为笔者主张的“第一次中韩大交易”。
目前中韩两国都面临着经济放缓下行的压力。同时在半岛安全问题上,两国长期面临外部因素的干扰,如朝核问题、美国因素、萨德问题等。为解决上述问题,中韩应紧密合作,共同突破各种障碍,建立真正的战略合作伙伴关系。
韩国为了克服东北亚安全困境、实现经济的持续发展,需要与中国建立紧密的合作伙伴关系。中国在改革全球治理、实现经济持续发展过程中需要战略合作伙伴。中韩两国都需要对方的支持和紧密合作,过去24年的中韩合作堪称世界外交历史上的成功典范。
在此次G20峰会上,中韩在坚持“政经分离”的两国建交基本原则的同时,应重新推动紧密合作。如习近平主席与朴槿惠总统利用G20峰会的机会进行首脑会晤,可望扭转由于美国“萨德”系统入韩导致的两国关系被动局面。笔者希望两位领导人借杭州G20峰会会晤构建中韩长期秘密谈判机制,使此次“习朴会”成为“第二次中韩大交易”的启动点。
五大中韩战略合作方向
如果中韩两国在杭州G20峰会上重启合作,笔者认为可从如下五个合作方向进行:
首先,中韩经济战略合作。中韩经济合作不仅在传统贸易上继续发展,还应在“一带一路”和“欧亚倡议”的对接上开展更务实的合作。其次,中韩安全战略合作。中韩两国应以非公开的方式进行安全战略对话,利用该安全对话机制坦诚沟通两国在安全困境方面的各种问题,如萨德问题、朝核问题、韩美同盟、中朝同盟等。再次,中韩公共外交战略合作。两国应致力于拓展多领域、多层次的公共外交,进行全面性、全方位沟通。第四,中韩能源战略合作。中韩应进行能源安全合作,主动推动东北亚能源合作。第五,中韩文化战略合作。两国应在民间领域扩大文化交流,加深对彼此的理解与沟通,共同创新新文化产业,打开全球市场。
上述合作中,最关键的是推动非公开安全战略对话和公共外交战略合作,这就需要构建增进中韩两国理解和沟通的平台机制。
只有中韩两国主动推动重新合作,才能摆脱由于外部因素介入导致的被动局面。而且两国合作的紧密程度将决定中韩在东北亚地区所能发挥的作用,成为抗衡外部因素的和平力量。
China’s role in the G20 and China-ROK cooperation
The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held in the Chinese city of Hangzhou on September 4 and 5, making it the first time that China hosts the meeting. China set the theme of the summit as “building an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive global economy,” and the four agenda items are “breaking a new path for growth,” “more effective and efficient global economic and financial governance,” “robust international trade and investment,” and “inclusive and interconnected development.” The theme and agenda items demonstrate China’s vision of improving the global economic governance and pushing the world economy back on track.
In order to improve the global economic governance, China has put forward a spate of proposals and initiatives since its current administration took office in 2012, including the Silk Road fund, the New Development Bank (formerly referred to as the BRICS Development Bank), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the “Belt and Road” initiative. Will the country come up with a new driving force for the world economy in the upcoming G20 summit?
China’s role in the G20
As far as I can see, China seeks to achieve the following things in the summit. First, China seeks to improve global economic governance and become a major force for reforming global governance. Second, the country will promote its model and an international agenda. China seeks to share its experience of reform and opening up and economic development to boost its international presence and influence of public diplomacy. Third, China aims to rebuild the world order. As the world’s largest developing country, China is dedicated to protecting the rights of developing countries in the current global governance system and urging developed countries to fulfill its obligations to developing countries.
There are three aspects to observe whether China fully delivers on its role of hosting the meeting. First, can China demonstrate its international coordination skills when confronted with the different agenda of developing countries, new industrial countries and developed countries? Second, can China fully play its leadership role during the coordination? Third, will China be able to provide global public goods to help the continuous development of developing countries and new industrial countries?
In order to revive the world economy, China needs to proactively promote the reform of global governance and the institutionalization of G20 governance.
China can institutionalize the following eight global governance issues, namely, economic and trade governance, financial governance, green governance (including environment and climate change), energy governance, conventional security issues, unconventional security issues (terrorism and epidemics), hot issues (e.g., the Brexit’s impact on the world economy), and global cooperation programs (including dovetailing the strategies of various countries, for instance, China’s “Belt and Road” initiative and South Korea’s Eurasia Initiative).
Three institutions can be devised to facilitate the aforementioned issues. First, the G20 summit needs to be responsible for the top-level design of global economic governance. Second, a new minister meeting under the G20 should be launched to allow trade and foreign ministers of the participating countries to coordinate issues in the global economy. Third, a G20 secretariat should be established to handle the various issues of those countries.
Xi-Park meeting & China-ROK cooperation
China and South Korea established diplomatic relations in 1992, after years of secret negotiations due to the involvement of the interests of the island of Taiwan and North Korea.
Currently the two countries are facing economic downward pressure and the security of the Korean peninsula is under the sway of external interference (including the nuclear issue in North Korea, the influence of the United States and the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, shortly THAAD). China and South Korea should work closer to build a real strategic partnership.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Park Geun-hye should hold a meeting during the G20 to thaw the ice between the two countries in the wake of South Korea’s decision in deploying THAAD. Moreover, the two countries should establish a long-standing negotiation mechanism.
The two countries can cooperate on the following fronts, if they indeed decide to resume cooperation during the G20. First, they should carry out more pragmatic cooperation on dovetailing the “Belt and Road” initiative and the Eurasia Initiative. Second, the two countries should carry out security talks behind closed doors in order to discuss their problems more candidly, including THAAD, the nuclear issue in North Korea, ROK-U.S. alliance, and China-DPRK alliance. Third, China and South Korea should expand public diplomacy on various fronts. Fourth, the two countries should cooperate on energy security. Fifth, the two countries should expand cultural exchanges among its people to better understand each other and explore the global market. Among the five, secret security talks and public diplomacy are the most important, which require a communicating mechanism between the two countries.
Only when China and South Korea proactively resume cooperation can the two countries pull themselves out of the current impasse brought by external force. The close cooperation between the two will decide their role in northeast Asia and help them become a force of peace in combating external interference.
(作者系韩国东亚和平研究院院长、察哈尔学会研究员,原载于中国网)